Dimension 01
Execution Risk
Operator capacity, team depth, delivery track record, execution plan integrity, project management maturity.
Methodology · Risk Engine
A system-driven framework that transforms complex project uncertainty into standardized, decision-grade risk intelligence.
The Risk Engine receives the locked R&I record as read-only input, decomposes project uncertainty along five consistent dimensions, and produces a composite A→S rating with full scoring transparency.
The five dimensions.
Every project is decomposed along the same five axes. Weights vary by stage. Dimensions do not.
Dimension 02
Geological / Technical
Subsurface or physical-asset characterization, technical feasibility, engineering assumption quality, resource certainty.
Dimension 03
Market / Commercial
Demand, pricing exposure, offtake structure, competitive positioning, commercial contract quality.
Dimension 04
Financial / Capital
Capital structure, funding certainty, sensitivity to cost overruns, return profile integrity, financing path.
Dimension 05
Regulatory / Operating
Permitting path, compliance posture, jurisdictional exposure, operating environment, ESG and social license.
Element-level scoring.
Within each dimension, individual elements are scored on Likelihood × Impact, modulated by Control Effectiveness.
| Input | Scale | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Likelihood | 0–3 | Probability the risk event materializes in the relevant time frame |
| Impact | 0–3 | Severity of the effect on project outcomes if the event occurs |
| Control Effectiveness | 0–3 | Quality and reliability of controls that mitigate the risk |
Element score = Likelihood × Impact × (1 − Control Effectiveness ⁄ 3). Dimension scores aggregate element scores with stage-appropriate weighting. The composite rating aggregates dimension scores into the final A→S grade.
Stage-sensitive weighting.
A Stage 1 concept project and a Stage 7 operating asset are fundamentally different analytical problems. The framework adjusts accordingly.
| Stage | Label | Dominant weighting focus |
|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 | Concept | Geological / Technical, Market thesis |
| Stage 2 | Pre-feasibility | Execution capacity, Technical de-risk |
| Stage 3 | Appraisal | Technical + Regulatory, early Financial |
| Stage 4 | Feasibility / FID | Financial, Execution plan, Commercial |
| Stage 5 | Construction | Execution discipline, Financial buffer |
| Stage 6 | Commissioning | Execution close-out, Commercial ramp |
| Stage 7 | Operating | Operating performance, Market, Regulatory |
Further reading
Deeper into the Risk Engine.
How-to
How to Read a TCA Risk Rating
A practical guide for allocators: what the composite rating represents, how to interpret it, and what questions to ask from the underlying scoring.
TechnicalVOR Scoring Architecture
The technical overview: the scoring engine’s internal logic, aggregation math, and the A→S derivation in full.